AFL · ROUND 14 · MCG
Melbourne v Essendon
Sat 13 Jun 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 37
MEL to win, 91% chance
MEL 91%9% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 45
HIT Actual margin 45 · 7.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 110 | 94 to 127 | 70 to 151 | 95% | 89% | 79% | 66% | 52% | inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 96 | 80 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 135 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 91 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 38% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 90 | 75 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 53% | 36% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 88 | 72 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Ed Langdon | R | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 112 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 57 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 47 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 83 |
| Lukas Cooke | HBFR | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 146 | 93% | 86% | 72% | 60% | 45% | inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Archie Roberts | BPL | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 44 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Sam Durham | C | 84 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 60% | 40% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 50% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Jordan Ridley | INT | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 65 | 50 to 79 | 29 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Archie Perkins | WL | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Ben McKay | FPL | 53 | 39 to 67 | 19 to 88 | 21% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 49 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | FPR | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Hussien El Achkar | CHB | 44 | 30 to 58 | 10 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |