AFL · ROUND 14 · MCG
Melbourne v Essendon
Sat 13 Jun 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 37
MEL to win, 91% chance
MEL 91%9% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 45
HIT Actual margin 45 · 7.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Lever | BPR | 6.8 | 4.7 to 8.8 | 2.1 to 11.4 | 84% | 72% | 58% | 44% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 83% | 71% | 56% | 43% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ed Langdon | R | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 70% | 58% | 44% | 31% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 74% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 65% | 47% | 33% | 22% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 24% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 58% | 42% | 28% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WR | 4.7 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 52% | 37% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 58% | 42% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 60% | 45% | 31% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 52% | 36% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 40% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 30% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 33% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 34% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 26% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 17% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 17% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 21% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lukas Cooke | HBFR | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 17% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Ridley | INT | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.7 to 10.7 | 78% | 65% | 51% | 36% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 6.1 | 4.1 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.5 | 76% | 63% | 49% | 34% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 52% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Archie Roberts | BPL | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 36% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.8 | 68% | 56% | 42% | 29% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 67% | 51% | 36% | 24% | 16% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 60% | 43% | 31% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ben McKay | FPL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 70% | 52% | 36% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 64% | 46% | 32% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 54% | 38% | 25% | 15% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 46% | 33% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 51% | 35% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Archie Perkins | WL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 50% | 34% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 36% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | FPR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 20% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |