AFL · ROUND 14 · OPTUS STADIUM
North Melbourne v West Coast Eagles
Sat 13 Jun 2026, 2:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 9
NM to win, 64% chance
NM 64%36% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 1
HIT Actual margin 1 · 8.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 29.5 | 25.2 to 33.7 | 18.6 to 40.3 | 97% | 91% | 76% | 46% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 33.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 26.1 | 22.1 to 30.1 | 15.8 to 36.4 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 23% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 24.4 | 20.5 to 28.4 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 23.4 | 19.5 to 27.2 | 13.5 to 33.2 | 93% | 74% | 42% | 13% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.8 to 30.7 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 20.5 | 16.9 to 24.1 | 11.2 to 29.8 | 85% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 19.2 | 15.6 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 81% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 18.1 | 14.6 to 21.5 | 9.2 to 26.9 | 72% | 30% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 17.2 | 13.8 to 20.6 | 8.5 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 15.7 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Tom Blamires | FPL | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | INT | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 10.4 | 7.6 to 13.2 | 3.3 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 10.2 | 7.4 to 12.9 | 3.2 to 17.2 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.3 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Taylor Goad | INT | 9.4 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | RR | 8.8 | 6.2 to 11.3 | 2.1 to 15.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | RR | 23.5 | 19.7 to 27.4 | 13.6 to 33.4 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 23.3 | 19.5 to 27.1 | 13.5 to 33.1 | 93% | 74% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 19.2 | 15.6 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 81% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 18.2 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.0 | 72% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 18.0 | 14.5 to 21.4 | 9.1 to 26.8 | 71% | 28% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Ryan Maric | WL | 17.0 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 16.7 | 13.3 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.2 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Elijah Hewett | INT | 13.6 | 10.5 to 16.7 | 5.7 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Tom Cole | HFFL | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brady Hough | HFFR | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 11.1 | 8.3 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.4 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFL | 9.1 | 6.5 to 11.7 | 2.4 to 15.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 8.9 | 6.3 to 11.5 | 2.2 to 15.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Tom Gross | FPR | 8.9 | 6.3 to 11.5 | 2.2 to 15.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 8.7 | 6.1 to 11.3 | 2.1 to 15.3 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |