AFL · ROUND 14 · OPTUS STADIUM
North Melbourne v West Coast Eagles
Sat 13 Jun 2026, 2:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 9
NM to win, 64% chance
NM 64%36% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 1
HIT Actual margin 1 · 8.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 105 | 89 to 122 | 65 to 146 | 92% | 86% | 72% | 59% | 45% | inside our 90% range: 129 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 64% | 47% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 91 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 38% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 83 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 60% | 39% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 105 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | INT | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Tom Blamires | FPL | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 87 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 51 | 38 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Cooper Harvey | RR | 46 | 32 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Taylor Goad | INT | 45 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 44 | 31 to 58 | 10 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kelly | R | 85 | 70 to 100 | 47 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 83 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 60% | 39% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Ryan Maric | WL | 66 | 51 to 80 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Tom Cole | HFFL | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Elijah Hewett | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 19 to 88 | 21% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Brady Hough | HFFR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 51 | 38 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 50 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFL | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 42 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Tom Gross | FPR | 42 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |