AFL · ROUND 14 · OPTUS STADIUM
North Melbourne v West Coast Eagles
Sat 13 Jun 2026, 2:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 9
NM to win, 64% chance
NM 64%36% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 1
HIT Actual margin 1 · 8.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.2 | 76% | 62% | 48% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 66% | 54% | 40% | 26% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 62% | 46% | 32% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 59% | 42% | 29% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 54% | 39% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 49% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 49% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 16% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 44% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 44% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 48% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Blamires | FPL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 40% | 23% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 41% | 26% | 16% | 10% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 32% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | RR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Taylor Goad | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.7 to 10.7 | 78% | 65% | 51% | 36% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 53% | 37% | 25% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 32% | 21% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Cole | HFFL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 49% | 32% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brady Hough | HFFR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 39% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryan Maric | WL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 42% | 28% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 35% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 2.4 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tom Gross | FPR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Elijah Hewett | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |