AFL · ROUND 14 · OPTUS STADIUM
North Melbourne v West Coast Eagles
Sat 13 Jun 2026, 2:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 9
NM to win, 64% chance
NM 64%36% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 1
HIT Actual margin 1 · 8.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 77% | 62% | 45% | 31% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.8 | 74% | 59% | 43% | 29% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 72% | 58% | 39% | 26% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 72% | 59% | 39% | 26% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 47% | 28% | 18% | 10% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 30% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 26% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 21% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Taylor Goad | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Blamires | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | RR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | INT | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot Yeo | C | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 73% | 59% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 59% | 42% | 24% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 38% | 21% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Elijah Hewett | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 34% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 34% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 34% | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 35% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Cole | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 32% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brady Hough | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ryan Maric | WL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Gross | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |