AFL · ROUND 14 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans
Sat 13 Jun 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 15
SYD to win, 72% chance
PA 28%72% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 3
HIT Actual margin 3 · 11.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 29.8 | 25.5 to 34.0 | 18.9 to 40.7 | 98% | 91% | 78% | 49% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 21.0 | 17.4 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.4 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Kane Farrell | BPL | 20.6 | 16.9 to 24.2 | 11.3 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 20.3 | 16.7 to 23.9 | 11.0 to 29.6 | 84% | 54% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 13.2 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Joe Berry | INT | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.0 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 12.1 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.4 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 10.9 | 8.0 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Todd Marshall | INT | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | BPR | 9.3 | 6.7 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFR | 9.3 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 8.5 | 6.0 to 11.1 | 2.0 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Tom Cochrane | HFFL | 8.3 | 5.7 to 10.8 | 1.8 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 26.5 | 22.4 to 30.5 | 16.1 to 36.9 | 95% | 85% | 60% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 26.0 | 22.0 to 30.0 | 15.7 to 36.3 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 23.3 | 19.4 to 27.1 | 13.4 to 33.1 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 22.4 | 18.6 to 26.1 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 20.8 | 17.2 to 24.5 | 11.4 to 30.2 | 87% | 59% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.9 | 11.0 to 29.5 | 84% | 54% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 19.6 | 16.0 to 23.2 | 10.4 to 28.7 | 83% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.6 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.9 to 26.3 | 70% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.7 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| James Jordon | INT | 16.3 | 13.0 to 19.6 | 7.9 to 24.8 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFL | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| James Rowbottom | R | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.3 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | CHF | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 12.1 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.5 | 4.3 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| William Edwards | BPR | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFR | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Hamling | FB | 9.4 | 6.7 to 12.0 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 9.1 | 6.5 to 11.8 | 2.4 to 15.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 8.9 | 6.3 to 11.5 | 2.3 to 15.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |