AFL · ROUND 14 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans
Sat 13 Jun 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 15
SYD to win, 72% chance
PA 28%72% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 3
HIT Actual margin 3 · 11.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 54% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 87 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Kane Farrell | BPL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 70% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 81 | 65 to 96 | 43 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Willem Drew | R | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 68% | 50% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Joe Berry | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 48 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Todd Marshall | INT | 48 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFR | 43 | 30 to 56 | 10 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Harrison Ramm | BPR | 43 | 30 to 56 | 10 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Tom Cochrane | HFFL | 43 | 29 to 56 | 10 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 58% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 91% | 81% | 67% | 56% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 91 | 75 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 72% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Chad Warner | C | 89 | 74 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| James Rowbottom | R | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| James Jordon | INT | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFL | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Caiden Cleary | CHF | 54 | 40 to 68 | 20 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 51 | 37 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFR | 47 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 82 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| William Edwards | BPR | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 45 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Joel Hamling | FB | 41 | 28 to 54 | 8 to 74 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |