AFL · ROUND 14 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans
Sat 13 Jun 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 15
SYD to win, 72% chance
PA 28%72% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 3
HIT Actual margin 3 · 11.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 6.4 | 4.3 to 8.4 | 1.8 to 10.9 | 80% | 68% | 53% | 39% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.2 to 9.6 | 71% | 54% | 39% | 29% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kane Farrell | BPL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 59% | 42% | 31% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 63% | 46% | 32% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 16% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 52% | 36% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Todd Marshall | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 50% | 35% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 34% | 22% | 14% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 27% | 17% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 42% | 26% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 31% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joe Berry | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 30% | 17% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 20% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | BPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFR | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Cochrane | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Mills | BPL | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 69% | 57% | 42% | 30% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 18% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 48% | 28% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.7 | 0.4 to 7.7 | 54% | 36% | 23% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 39% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| William Edwards | BPR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 22% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Hamling | FB | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 2.4 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 18% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | CHF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Jordon | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James Rowbottom | R | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |