AFL · ROUND 14 · NINJA STADIUM
Richmond v Brisbane Lions
Sun 14 Jun 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
Prediction not published yet.
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 35
MISS Actual margin 35
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mykelti Lefau | FF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 35% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Seth Campbell | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 33% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | FPL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 36% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Cumming | CHF | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Miller | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dion Prestia | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan Broad | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | CHF | 2.6 | 1.7 to 3.5 | 0.4 to 4.8 | 84% | 59% | 37% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 74% | 50% | 29% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 64% | 35% | 14% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 61% | 31% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Conor McKenna | FPR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 37% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 36% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 32% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Tunstill | HFFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Shadeau Brain | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |