AFL · ROUND 14 · NINJA STADIUM
Richmond v Brisbane Lions
Sun 14 Jun 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
Prediction not published yet.
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 35
MISS Actual margin 35
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 10.9 | 80% | 68% | 53% | 39% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ben Miller | BPR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 38% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nathan Broad | HBFR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 61% | 45% | 30% | 19% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 49% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | FB | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 52% | 36% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 52% | 35% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 46% | 31% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 39% | 26% | 14% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 40% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Dion Prestia | RR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 42% | 25% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FF | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 32% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 31% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Seth Campbell | R | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Cumming | CHF | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 17% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | FPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPL | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFL | 1.7 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Andrews | FB | 7.4 | 5.3 to 9.6 | 2.6 to 12.3 | 87% | 78% | 68% | 54% | 41% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.3 | 2.4 to 12.0 | 85% | 74% | 63% | 51% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 5.8 | 3.8 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.0 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 34% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.4 to 10.0 | 73% | 60% | 45% | 33% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | HBFR | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 66% | 54% | 40% | 26% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 66% | 54% | 39% | 26% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.6 | 70% | 54% | 39% | 28% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 59% | 42% | 31% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 64% | 46% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 68% | 48% | 34% | 23% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 68% | 50% | 36% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 19% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 55% | 40% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Shadeau Brain | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 52% | 32% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 59% | 44% | 30% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 26% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 52% | 36% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| James Tunstill | HFFR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 41% | 26% | 16% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 22% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Conor McKenna | FPR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |