AFL · ROUND 14 · NINJA STADIUM
Richmond v Brisbane Lions
Sun 14 Jun 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
Prediction not published yet.
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 35
MISS Actual margin 35
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 66% | 49% | 34% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Dion Prestia | RR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 36% | 21% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 37% | 22% | 12% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 37% | 22% | 11% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Seth Campbell | R | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 36% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Cumming | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 26% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | FPL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Miller | BPR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nathan Broad | HBFR | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 76% | 61% | 45% | 30% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 53% | 34% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 34% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Conor McKenna | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James Tunstill | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shadeau Brain | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 0.7 | 0.1 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |