AFL · ROUND 14 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v GWS GIANTS
Sun 14 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GWS by 7
GWS to win, 60% chance
STK 40%60% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 8
MISS Actual margin 8 · 14.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | HBFL | 28.4 | 24.2 to 32.5 | 17.7 to 39.0 | 96% | 89% | 72% | 38% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | CHB | 28.2 | 24.1 to 32.4 | 17.5 to 38.9 | 96% | 89% | 71% | 38% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 72% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFR | 22.3 | 18.5 to 26.1 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.4 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 90% | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | R | 21.2 | 17.5 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 20.8 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.2 | 86% | 59% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPL | 17.9 | 14.4 to 21.3 | 9.1 to 26.7 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | INT | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.7 | 7.2 to 23.7 | 49% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPR | 13.9 | 10.8 to 17.0 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFL | 11.0 | 8.1 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Angus Hastie | WR | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.0 | 3.3 to 17.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Campbell Lake | HFFR | 10.1 | 7.3 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 9.6 | 7.0 to 12.3 | 2.8 to 16.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 9.3 | 6.7 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 9.1 | 6.5 to 11.7 | 2.4 to 15.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 8.5 | 6.0 to 11.1 | 2.0 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 31.2 | 26.9 to 35.6 | 20.1 to 42.4 | 98% | 93% | 81% | 58% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 35.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 29.1 | 24.9 to 33.4 | 18.3 to 40.0 | 97% | 90% | 74% | 44% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 29.0 | 24.8 to 33.2 | 18.2 to 39.8 | 97% | 89% | 73% | 43% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 28.9 | 24.7 to 33.1 | 18.1 to 39.6 | 97% | 89% | 73% | 42% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 20.8 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.2 | 86% | 59% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.1 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Brent Daniels | FPL | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Toby Greene | HFFL | 18.1 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.0 | 72% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.9 | 8.8 to 26.3 | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 17.0 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | INT | 16.6 | 13.3 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.2 | 64% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Conor Stone | WL | 14.6 | 11.5 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jake Stringer | CHF | 12.6 | 9.6 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 12.6 | 9.6 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 12.4 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPR | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 2.9 to 16.8 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 9.3 | 6.7 to 12.0 | 2.6 to 16.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |