AFL · ROUND 14 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v GWS GIANTS
Sun 14 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GWS by 7
GWS to win, 60% chance
STK 40%60% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 8
MISS Actual margin 8 · 14.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | CHB | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 146 | 93% | 86% | 72% | 60% | 45% | inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Jack Sinclair | HBFL | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 83% | 68% | 57% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Max Hall | C | 88 | 73 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPL | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 42 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 65% | 42% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFR | 83 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 60% | 39% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Marcus Windhager | R | 79 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Mason Wood | FPR | 62 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Ryan Byrnes | INT | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 96 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFL | 56 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 95 |
| Angus Hastie | WR | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Campbell Lake | HFFR | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 45 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 44 | 30 to 58 | 10 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 41 | 27 to 54 | 8 to 74 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 103 | 86 to 119 | 62 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 67% | 56% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 113 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 91% | 81% | 67% | 56% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 115 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 55% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 102 | 85 to 118 | 61 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 66% | 54% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 116 |
| Toby Greene | HFFL | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Brent Daniels | FPL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 58% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPR | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Jake Stringer | CHF | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Ryan Angwin | INT | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 56 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Conor Stone | WL | 56 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 20 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |