AFL · ROUND 14 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v GWS GIANTS
Sun 14 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GWS by 7
GWS to win, 60% chance
STK 40%60% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 8
MISS Actual margin 8 · 14.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 52% | 26% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 65% | 36% | 15% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 46% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | CHB | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 28% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Hastie | WR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Campbell Lake | HFFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Stringer | CHF | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 3.9 | 71% | 47% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.1 to 3.8 | 70% | 47% | 27% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPR | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 64% | 41% | 22% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Toby Greene | HFFL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 59% | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 47% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 22% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brent Daniels | FPL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Conor Stone | WL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |