AFL · ROUND 14 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v GWS GIANTS
Sun 14 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GWS by 7
GWS to win, 60% chance
STK 40%60% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 8
MISS Actual margin 8 · 14.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 72% | 55% | 39% | 27% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 64% | 46% | 31% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 55% | 35% | 20% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 40% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 39% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | CHB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 34% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Hastie | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Campbell Lake | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 19% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 67% | 50% | 34% | 24% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Brent Daniels | FPL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 59% | 40% | 26% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.5 to 7.2 | 64% | 47% | 26% | 15% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 53% | 31% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 62% | 41% | 24% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 48% | 29% | 15% | 9% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 48% | 29% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Greene | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 38% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 21% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 23% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Stringer | CHF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Conor Stone | WL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 0.7 | 0.1 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |