AFL · ROUND 14 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Crows
Thu 11 Jun 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 8
ADE to win, 63% chance
WB 37%63% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 57
HIT Actual margin 57 · 48.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 27.0 | 22.9 to 31.0 | 16.5 to 37.4 | 96% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 26.4 | 22.3 to 30.4 | 16.0 to 36.7 | 95% | 85% | 60% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 25.1 | 21.1 to 29.0 | 14.9 to 35.2 | 98% | 87% | 57% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 24.0 | 20.1 to 27.9 | 14.0 to 33.9 | 97% | 82% | 51% | 19% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 23.7 | 19.8 to 27.5 | 13.8 to 33.6 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Adam Treloar | HFFR | 18.1 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 26.9 | 72% | 30% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Joel Freijah | INT | 17.7 | 14.3 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.5 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.8 to 23.1 | 51% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 14.8 | 11.6 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.9 | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPL | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPL | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.4 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 11.1 | 8.3 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.4 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 10.1 | 7.3 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Rory Lobb | INT | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 9.1 | 6.5 to 11.7 | 2.4 to 15.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jordan Croft | INT | 8.2 | 5.7 to 10.8 | 1.8 to 14.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 8.1 | 5.6 to 10.6 | 1.7 to 14.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 25.4 | 21.4 to 29.4 | 15.2 to 35.6 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 23.7 | 19.9 to 27.6 | 13.8 to 33.6 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 17% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 23.6 | 19.7 to 27.4 | 13.7 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 15% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 22.9 | 19.1 to 26.7 | 13.1 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Sam Berry | R | 22.7 | 18.9 to 26.5 | 13.0 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 20.5 | 16.8 to 24.1 | 11.2 to 29.8 | 85% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 18.2 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.4 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | CHF | 16.8 | 13.5 to 20.2 | 8.2 to 25.4 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 16.3 | 13.0 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.8 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 14.6 | 11.4 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 47% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 13.2 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | FF | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 12.4 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 11.1 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 10.9 | 8.0 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Nick Murray | CHB | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | HFFL | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 8.2 | 5.7 to 10.7 | 1.7 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |