AFL · ROUND 14 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Crows
Thu 11 Jun 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 8
ADE to win, 63% chance
WB 37%63% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 57
HIT Actual margin 57 · 48.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 52% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Ed Richards | R | 96 | 81 to 112 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 46% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 128 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 84% | 71% | 55% | 37% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 87 | 72 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 83% | 65% | 47% | 30% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Tim English | RK | 87 | 72 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 83% | 65% | 47% | 30% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Joel Freijah | INT | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Adam Treloar | HFFR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Rhylee West | FPL | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Nick Coffield | BPL | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Rory Lobb | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 87 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 87 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 46 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 80 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 45 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 79 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Jordan Croft | INT | 45 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 79 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 42 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 42 | 28 to 55 | 8 to 75 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 102 | 86 to 119 | 62 to 142 | 91% | 82% | 67% | 56% | 39% | outside our 90% range: 156 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 93 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Sam Berry | R | 90 | 75 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 36% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 89 | 74 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 19% | outside our 90% range: 133 |
| James Peatling | RR | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 83 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | CHF | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 71 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | FF | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 59 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 55 | 40 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Luke Pedlar | HFFL | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 49 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 48 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Nick Murray | CHB | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| James Borlase | FB | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 80 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |