AFL · ROUND 14 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Crows
Thu 11 Jun 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 8
ADE to win, 63% chance
WB 37%63% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 57
HIT Actual margin 57 · 48.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 70% | 47% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 40% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 39% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 52% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 28% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 33% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Croft | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Adam Treloar | HFFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Freijah | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Lobb | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Thilthorpe | FF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 61% | 38% | 19% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 46% | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 42% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 21% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 36% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | CHF | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Murray | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | R | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |