AFL · ROUND 14 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Crows
Thu 11 Jun 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 8
ADE to win, 63% chance
WB 37%63% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 57
HIT Actual margin 57 · 48.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 67% | 49% | 34% | 24% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 63% | 47% | 32% | 23% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 65% | 48% | 33% | 21% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Joel Freijah | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 57% | 39% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 52% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rory Lobb | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 23% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Adam Treloar | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 17% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 25% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan Croft | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Berry | R | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.9 to 10.2 | 87% | 76% | 63% | 51% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.8 | 74% | 59% | 42% | 29% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 68% | 50% | 36% | 24% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | CHF | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 52% | 30% | 18% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 60% | 41% | 23% | 15% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 48% | 31% | 16% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 35% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 17% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 27% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Murray | CHB | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |