AFL · ROUND 15 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Melbourne
Sat 20 Jun 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 11
ADE to win, 66% chance
ADE 66%34% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 6.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 26.3 | 22.3 to 30.4 | 16.0 to 36.7 | 95% | 84% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 26.1 | 22.1 to 30.1 | 15.8 to 36.4 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 23% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 25.2 | 21.2 to 29.2 | 15.0 to 35.4 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Sam Berry | R | 23.8 | 19.9 to 27.7 | 13.9 to 33.7 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 17% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 21.8 | 18.0 to 25.5 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 90% | 64% | 31% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 21.7 | 17.9 to 25.4 | 12.1 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 10.0 to 28.0 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.6 | 8.6 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 16.9 | 13.5 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 64% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.5 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.5 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 15.5 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 15.5 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Nick Murray | CHB | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.1 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 12.1 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.5 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.1 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 23.7 | 19.8 to 27.5 | 13.8 to 33.6 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 23.1 | 19.3 to 26.9 | 13.3 to 32.9 | 93% | 72% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 21.9 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.4 to 31.5 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 21.6 | 17.9 to 25.3 | 12.1 to 31.1 | 89% | 64% | 29% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Ed Langdon | R | 20.8 | 17.2 to 24.5 | 11.4 to 30.2 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Trent Rivers | CHB | 19.1 | 15.6 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 81% | 48% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | HBFR | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.8 to 26.3 | 70% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.6 to 22.9 | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 14.4 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 14.2 | 11.0 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 22.0 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Paddy Cross | WR | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 9.3 | 6.7 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 8.8 | 6.2 to 11.4 | 2.2 to 15.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 7.6 | 5.2 to 10.0 | 1.3 to 13.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |