AFL · ROUND 15 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Melbourne
Sat 20 Jun 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 11
ADE to win, 66% chance
ADE 66%34% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 6.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 68% | 56% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 99 | 83 to 115 | 59 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 50% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Sam Berry | R | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 84% | 71% | 56% | 37% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 89 | 74 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 34% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| James Peatling | RR | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 80% | 66% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 76 | 60 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 28% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 74 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 21 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 72 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 113 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 104 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Nick Murray | CHB | 56 | 41 to 70 | 20 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 103 |
| James Borlase | FB | 49 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 68% | 56% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 112 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 89 | 74 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Ed Langdon | R | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 66% | 48% | 32% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Trent Rivers | CHB | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | HBFR | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 95 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 50 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Paddy Cross | WR | 46 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 80 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 40 | 27 to 54 | 8 to 74 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 40 | 27 to 54 | 7 to 73 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |