AFL · ROUND 15 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Melbourne
Sat 20 Jun 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 11
ADE to win, 66% chance
ADE 66%34% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 6.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.1 to 3.8 | 70% | 47% | 26% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 70% | 40% | 17% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 65% | 35% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 54% | 27% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 43% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 38% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 40% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 37% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 24% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Murray | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 60% | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 45% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 71% | 41% | 17% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 53% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 29% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 31% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 28% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 25% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paddy Cross | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |