AFL · ROUND 15 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Melbourne
Sat 20 Jun 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 11
ADE to win, 66% chance
ADE 66%34% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 6.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Berry | R | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 2.1 to 10.6 | 88% | 79% | 66% | 54% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 86% | 74% | 62% | 50% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 74% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 60% | 42% | 24% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 61% | 44% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 59% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.4 to 7.0 | 57% | 39% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 58% | 37% | 21% | 14% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 38% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 38% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 30% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 26% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Murray | CHB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.2 | 2.0 to 10.5 | 88% | 78% | 65% | 53% | 41% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 5.3 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 79% | 66% | 54% | 40% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 72% | 58% | 39% | 26% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 64% | 49% | 28% | 15% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 52% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 34% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 26% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paddy Cross | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 35% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ed Langdon | R | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Trent Rivers | CHB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |