AFL · ROUND 15 · MCG
Collingwood v Port Adelaide
Sat 20 Jun 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 17
COL to win, 74% chance
COL 74%26% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 26
HIT Actual margin 26 · 8.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 31.2 | 26.9 to 35.5 | 20.1 to 42.3 | 98% | 93% | 81% | 57% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 41.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 24.9 | 21.0 to 28.9 | 14.8 to 35.1 | 98% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.4 | 12.2 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | RR | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.4 | 12.1 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WL | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.2 | 11.3 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 18.5 | 15.1 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 74% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 18.2 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.4 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 18.1 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.0 | 72% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | C | 15.7 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 15.5 | 12.2 to 18.7 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 49% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 15.4 | 12.1 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Ned Long | CHF | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.4 | 45% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 14.9 | 11.8 to 18.1 | 6.8 to 23.1 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Sam Swadling | BPL | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mitch Podhajski | FF | 10.2 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Daniel McStay | INT | 9.1 | 6.4 to 11.7 | 2.4 to 15.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 29.8 | 25.6 to 34.1 | 18.9 to 40.7 | 98% | 91% | 78% | 49% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 21.9 | 18.1 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 21.4 | 17.7 to 25.0 | 11.9 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 21.2 | 17.5 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 19.5 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.6 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 18.7 | 15.2 to 22.2 | 9.7 to 27.7 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.4 | 6.9 to 23.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 13.5 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | INT | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 11.1 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 11.1 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | INT | 10.7 | 8.0 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 10.3 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tom Cochrane | HFFL | 9.4 | 6.7 to 12.0 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 8.9 | 6.3 to 11.5 | 2.3 to 15.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | INT | 8.2 | 5.6 to 10.7 | 1.7 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |