AFL · ROUND 15 · MCG
Collingwood v Port Adelaide
Sat 20 Jun 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 17
COL to win, 74% chance
COL 74%26% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 26
HIT Actual margin 26 · 8.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 109 | 92 to 125 | 68 to 149 | 94% | 88% | 76% | 62% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 148 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 91 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 90 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 30% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Jordan De Goey | RR | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 116 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Ned Long | CHF | 68 | 53 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Steele Sidebottom | C | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 25 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Daniel McStay | INT | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 55 | 40 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Mitch Podhajski | FF | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Sam Swadling | BPL | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 48 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 58% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 90 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 124 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Willem Drew | R | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 34% | 19% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 131 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Jack Lukosius | INT | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Xavier Bamert | INT | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Tom Cochrane | HFFL | 45 | 32 to 59 | 11 to 79 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Harrison Ramm | INT | 40 | 27 to 53 | 7 to 73 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10 |