AFL · ROUND 15 · MCG
Collingwood v Port Adelaide
Sat 20 Jun 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 17
COL to win, 74% chance
COL 74%26% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 26
HIT Actual margin 26 · 8.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 46% | 21% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel McStay | INT | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 68% | 38% | 15% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 60% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Podhajski | FF | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 33% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | RR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 44% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ned Long | CHF | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 37% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 24% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Swadling | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.6 | 82% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 71% | 40% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 60% | 25% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 57% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 29% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Cochrane | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 53% | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 32% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 38% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 26% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 27% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 27% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |