AFL · ROUND 15 · MCG
Collingwood v Port Adelaide
Sat 20 Jun 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 17
COL to win, 74% chance
COL 74%26% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 26
HIT Actual margin 26 · 8.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 1.0 to 8.4 | 71% | 54% | 39% | 26% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 66% | 49% | 34% | 23% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ned Long | CHF | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 65% | 48% | 33% | 23% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 61% | 44% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 40% | 22% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | RR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | C | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 27% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 34% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel McStay | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Swadling | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Podhajski | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Drew | R | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 86% | 74% | 62% | 50% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 4.3 | 2.8 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 71% | 57% | 37% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 68% | 54% | 36% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 61% | 41% | 24% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tom Cochrane | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 20% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 20% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |