AFL · ROUND 15 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Geelong Cats
Thu 18 Jun 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 10
FRE to win, 65% chance
FRE 65%35% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 1.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 25.0 | 21.1 to 29.0 | 14.9 to 35.1 | 98% | 87% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.4 | 14.5 to 34.6 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 23.3 | 19.4 to 27.1 | 13.4 to 33.1 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 22.3 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 21.9 | 18.1 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.4 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 19.2 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 17.9 | 14.5 to 21.4 | 9.1 to 26.8 | 71% | 28% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 17.8 | 14.3 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.5 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 14.6 | 11.4 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 9.5 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 9.4 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.6 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 8.4 | 5.8 to 10.9 | 1.9 to 14.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.7 | 5.3 to 10.2 | 1.4 to 14.0 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holmes | RR | 28.4 | 24.2 to 32.6 | 17.7 to 39.1 | 96% | 89% | 72% | 39% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | CHB | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.4 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | C | 18.5 | 15.1 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 74% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Tom Atkins | R | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | WL | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.7 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFL | 16.6 | 13.3 to 19.9 | 8.1 to 25.1 | 64% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.6 to 24.5 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 15.8 | 12.6 to 19.1 | 7.4 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 15.6 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.3 to 23.9 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | BPR | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | HBFR | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 13.4 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.5 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 12.6 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| George Stevens | INT | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.9 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.8 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 2.9 to 16.8 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 9.3 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 8.6 | 6.1 to 11.2 | 2.1 to 15.2 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |