AFL · ROUND 15 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Geelong Cats
Thu 18 Jun 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 10
FRE to win, 65% chance
FRE 65%35% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 1.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Jackson | RK | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 166 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 132 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 93 | 77 to 108 | 53 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 38% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 83% | 65% | 47% | 30% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 59 | 45 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 36 | 23 to 49 | 4 to 68 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 74 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holmes | RR | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 52% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Lawson Humphries | CHB | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 35 |
| Tanner Bruhn | C | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFL | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | WL | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Tom Atkins | R | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 57 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Mark O'Connor | HBFR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Oisin Mullin | BPR | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 51 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| George Stevens | INT | 46 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 80 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 46 | 33 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 41 | 28 to 55 | 8 to 74 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 41 | 28 to 54 | 8 to 74 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |