AFL · ROUND 15 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Geelong Cats
Thu 18 Jun 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 10
FRE to win, 65% chance
FRE 65%35% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 1.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 2.1 | 1.2 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 74% | 50% | 30% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.1 | 76% | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.1 | 76% | 53% | 30% | 15% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 51% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 43% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 28% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 47% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 41% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 25% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.5 | 82% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 63% | 34% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 35% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 57% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | WL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 30% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 47% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| George Stevens | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Atkins | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |