AFL · ROUND 15 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Geelong Cats
Thu 18 Jun 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 10
FRE to win, 65% chance
FRE 65%35% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 1.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 6.4 | 4.3 to 8.4 | 1.8 to 10.9 | 80% | 68% | 53% | 39% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 66% | 54% | 40% | 26% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 62% | 46% | 31% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 67% | 47% | 33% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 52% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 37% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 50% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 38% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 30% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 32% | 20% | 12% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 31% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 18% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 61% | 44% | 32% | 21% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 63% | 46% | 34% | 22% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | CHB | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 55% | 40% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 38% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | HBFR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 42% | 28% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 41% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFL | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 44% | 30% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 50% | 30% | 16% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | C | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 31% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | WL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 15% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | BPR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| George Stevens | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Atkins | R | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |