AFL · ROUND 15 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Carlton
Sat 20 Jun 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GWS by 17
GWS to win, 74% chance
GWS 74%26% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 23
MISS Actual margin 23 · 39.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 30.1 | 25.8 to 34.4 | 19.1 to 41.1 | 98% | 91% | 79% | 52% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 29.1 | 24.9 to 33.4 | 18.3 to 40.0 | 97% | 90% | 74% | 44% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 28.6 | 24.4 to 32.7 | 17.8 to 39.3 | 97% | 89% | 72% | 40% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 28.1 | 23.9 to 32.2 | 17.4 to 38.7 | 96% | 89% | 70% | 37% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Brent Daniels | RR | 21.4 | 17.7 to 25.1 | 11.9 to 30.9 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 19.8 | 16.3 to 23.4 | 10.6 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Toby Greene | FPR | 18.5 | 15.0 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 18.1 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.0 | 72% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.9 | 63% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Toby Bedford | FPL | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.6 to 22.9 | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 14.6 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.5 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 14.3 | 11.1 to 17.4 | 6.3 to 22.3 | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.4 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jake Stringer | HFFL | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.5 | 4.3 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | CHF | 10.6 | 7.9 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 9.5 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 9.5 | 6.8 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 26.8 | 22.7 to 30.9 | 16.4 to 37.2 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 25.4 | 21.4 to 29.4 | 15.2 to 35.6 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 22.5 | 18.7 to 26.2 | 12.8 to 32.1 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 22.1 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.5 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 20.9 | 17.3 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 20.4 | 16.7 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 19.6 | 16.0 to 23.2 | 10.4 to 28.7 | 83% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 19.3 | 15.8 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.8 to 24.7 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 15.6 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.3 to 23.9 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 13.0 | 9.9 to 16.0 | 5.2 to 20.7 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.3 | 2.8 to 16.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 8.4 | 5.9 to 10.9 | 1.9 to 14.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |