AFL · ROUND 15 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Carlton
Sat 20 Jun 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GWS by 17
GWS to win, 74% chance
GWS 74%26% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 23
MISS Actual margin 23 · 39.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 91% | 81% | 67% | 56% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 56% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 52% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 51% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Brent Daniels | RR | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Toby Greene | FPR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 77 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Toby Bedford | FPL | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Aaron Cadman | CHF | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Jake Stringer | HFFL | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 61 | 47 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 20 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 87 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 108 |
| George Hewett | INT | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 128 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 43% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 76 | 61 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 50% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 54 | 40 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 45 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 43 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |