AFL · ROUND 15 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Carlton
Sat 20 Jun 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GWS by 17
GWS to win, 74% chance
GWS 74%26% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 23
MISS Actual margin 23 · 39.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Stringer | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 76% | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | CHF | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 3.8 | 71% | 47% | 27% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 62% | 39% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Greene | FPR | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 69% | 39% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Bedford | FPL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brent Daniels | RR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 38% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 70% | 47% | 26% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 65% | 35% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 56% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 65% | 36% | 15% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 38% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 43% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 38% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 22% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 24% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |