AFL · ROUND 15 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Carlton
Sat 20 Jun 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GWS by 17
GWS to win, 74% chance
GWS 74%26% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 23
MISS Actual margin 23 · 39.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 1.9 to 11.1 | 82% | 69% | 55% | 41% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 65% | 50% | 36% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 6.1 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.7 to 10.5 | 76% | 62% | 48% | 34% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.2 | 76% | 63% | 48% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 72% | 59% | 44% | 32% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 72% | 55% | 39% | 29% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | CHF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 56% | 40% | 27% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 4.3 | 2.6 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Toby Greene | FPR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 50% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 44% | 30% | 19% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Stringer | HFFL | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 43% | 30% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 39% | 24% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 36% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brent Daniels | RR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Bedford | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Newman | INT | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.2 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 37% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.4 to 10.0 | 72% | 59% | 44% | 33% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 74% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 52% | 37% | 25% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 48% | 28% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 50% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 58% | 43% | 29% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 3.6 | 2.0 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 43% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 31% | 21% | 13% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 35% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 40% | 23% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 20% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |