AFL · ROUND 15 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Hawthorn
Fri 19 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 10
HAW to win, 66% chance
GCS 34%66% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 5.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 29.2 | 25.0 to 33.4 | 18.4 to 40.0 | 97% | 90% | 74% | 45% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 43.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 27.8 | 23.7 to 32.0 | 17.2 to 38.4 | 96% | 88% | 69% | 35% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 25.5 | 21.5 to 29.4 | 15.2 to 35.7 | 98% | 87% | 60% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.2 | 14.3 to 34.3 | 97% | 83% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.2 | 14.3 to 34.3 | 97% | 83% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 22.7 | 18.9 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | CHB | 22.3 | 18.6 to 26.1 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | WL | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 15.4 | 12.1 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | BPL | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 14.4 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 14.4 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jai Murray | FPL | 12.6 | 9.7 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Ben Long | CHF | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 9.6 | 7.0 to 12.3 | 2.8 to 16.5 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 9.4 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 8.4 | 5.9 to 11.0 | 1.9 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jed Walter | FPR | 8.1 | 5.6 to 10.6 | 1.7 to 14.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 26.7 | 22.7 to 30.8 | 16.3 to 37.2 | 95% | 86% | 62% | 27% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 23.3 | 19.5 to 27.1 | 13.5 to 33.1 | 93% | 74% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 22.9 | 19.1 to 26.7 | 13.1 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 70% | 37% | 10% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 21.4 | 17.7 to 25.1 | 11.9 to 30.9 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Will Day | C | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.5 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 20.7 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 19.2 | 15.6 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 81% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 10.0 to 28.0 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 18.0 | 14.5 to 21.4 | 9.1 to 26.8 | 71% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 65% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Josh Weddle | HBFR | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | FPL | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.4 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Cameron Nairn | INT | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.4 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 9.5 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Tom Barrass | CHB | 8.9 | 6.3 to 11.4 | 2.2 to 15.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 8.1 | 5.6 to 10.6 | 1.7 to 14.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |