AFL · ROUND 15 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Hawthorn
Fri 19 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 10
HAW to win, 66% chance
GCS 34%66% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 5.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 147 | 93% | 86% | 73% | 60% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 143 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 84% | 70% | 58% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 46% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 91 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 86 | 70 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 80% | 66% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Bodhi Uwland | CHB | 83 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 60% | 39% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Joel Jeffrey | WL | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 122 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 71 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 103 | 45% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 106 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 66 | 51 to 80 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Sam Clohesy | BPL | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Ben Long | CHF | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 108 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 88 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jai Murray | FPL | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 88 |
| Ben King | FF | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Beau Addinsall | INT | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Jed Walter | FPR | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 43 | 29 to 56 | 10 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 87 | 72 to 103 | 48 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Will Day | C | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 70% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 26 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Josh Ward | R | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 58% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Blake Hardwick | FPL | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Josh Weddle | HBFR | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Cameron Nairn | INT | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 43 | 30 to 56 | 10 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Tom Barrass | CHB | 40 | 27 to 53 | 7 to 73 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |