AFL · ROUND 15 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Hawthorn
Fri 19 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 10
HAW to win, 66% chance
GCS 34%66% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 5.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Noble | HBFL | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 74% | 60% | 46% | 31% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | CHB | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.0 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 34% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.0 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 34% | 22% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 67% | 55% | 40% | 27% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | WL | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 59% | 43% | 29% | 19% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 48% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 41% | 27% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | BPL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 28% | 18% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Long | CHF | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 33% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jed Walter | FPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 35% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 24% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jai Murray | FPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | INT | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.0 | 0.8 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Sicily | BPL | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 83% | 70% | 56% | 43% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 66% | 51% | 36% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 6.1 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.7 to 10.5 | 76% | 62% | 48% | 34% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 67% | 47% | 33% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Josh Weddle | HBFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 54% | 38% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | FPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 52% | 33% | 21% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 55% | 41% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Barrass | CHB | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 52% | 37% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 50% | 36% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 40% | 23% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 30% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Day | C | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 18% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cameron Nairn | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 1.7 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |