AFL · ROUND 15 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Hawthorn
Fri 19 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 10
HAW to win, 66% chance
GCS 34%66% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 5.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 29.2 / outside our 90% range: 43.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 106 / inside our 90% range: 143 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 27.8 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 104 / inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 25.5 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 6.6 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 97 / inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 24.3 / inside our 90% range: 31.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.3 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 91 / inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 24.3 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 86 / inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 22.7 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Bodhi Uwland | CHB | 22.3 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 83 / inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Joel Jeffrey | WL | 18.4 / outside our 90% range: 33.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 72 / outside our 90% range: 122 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 15.4 / outside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 67 / outside our 90% range: 106 |
| Sam Clohesy | BPL | 15.1 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 14.4 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.6 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 14.4 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 12.8 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Jai Murray | FPL | 12.6 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 53 / outside our 90% range: 88 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 11.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Beau Addinsall | INT | 10.7 / outside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 48 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 44 / inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Ben Long | CHF | 10.1 / outside our 90% range: 20.0 | 1.4 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 54 / outside our 90% range: 108 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 9.6 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 71 / inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 9.4 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 43 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Ben King | FF | 8.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 52 / inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Jed Walter | FPR | 8.1 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 47 / inside our 90% range: 64 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 26.7 / inside our 90% range: 31.0 | 0.3 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 87 / inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 23.3 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Josh Ward | R | 22.9 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 22.6 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 81 / outside our 90% range: 26 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 21.4 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 21.1 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Will Day | C | 20.9 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 20.7 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 19.2 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 19.0 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 18.4 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 18.0 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.8 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 17.1 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Josh Weddle | HBFR | 14.7 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Blake Hardwick | FPL | 14.2 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 12.5 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Cameron Nairn | INT | 11.9 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 11.6 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 43 / inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 11.5 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 10.9 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 9.5 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Tom Barrass | CHB | 8.9 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 40 / inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 8.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 0.5 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 53 / inside our 90% range: 34 |