AFL · ROUND 15 · MCG
Richmond v North Melbourne
Sun 21 Jun 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 24
NM to win, 82% chance
RIC 18%82% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 0.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.4 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 21% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Dion Prestia | RR | 23.5 | 19.7 to 27.4 | 13.7 to 33.4 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 72% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 20.7 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 17.0 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | HFFL | 16.9 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 65% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 16.6 | 13.3 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.2 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 15.6 | 12.4 to 18.8 | 7.3 to 23.9 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 14.5 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 14.4 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 14.3 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 14.3 | 11.1 to 17.4 | 6.2 to 22.3 | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Taj Hotton | INT | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.7 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Kye Annand | INT | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | INT | 9.5 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.6 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.8 | 2.5 to 15.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FF | 8.8 | 6.2 to 11.4 | 2.2 to 15.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | INT | 7.1 | 4.7 to 9.5 | 1.0 to 13.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 31.3 | 27.0 to 35.7 | 20.2 to 42.5 | 98% | 94% | 82% | 58% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 27.0 | 23.0 to 31.1 | 16.6 to 37.5 | 96% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 25.3 | 21.3 to 29.3 | 15.1 to 35.5 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 24.2 | 20.3 to 28.1 | 14.2 to 34.2 | 97% | 83% | 53% | 20% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 40.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 23.2 | 19.4 to 27.0 | 13.4 to 33.0 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HFFL | 22.2 | 18.4 to 25.9 | 12.5 to 31.8 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 21.7 | 17.9 to 25.4 | 12.1 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 20.7 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 19.8 | 16.2 to 23.4 | 10.6 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFL | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.9 | 8.8 to 26.2 | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 16.9 | 13.5 to 20.2 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 66% | 27% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 15.6 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.2 to 23.9 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Aidan Corr | INT | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 12.6 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.4 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.1 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Taylor Goad | INT | 9.4 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |