AFL · ROUND 15 · MCG
Richmond v North Melbourne
Sun 21 Jun 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 24
NM to win, 82% chance
RIC 18%82% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 0.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 90 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Dion Prestia | RR | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Tyler Sonsie | HFFL | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 33 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 103 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| James Trezise | WR | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 59 | 45 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 57 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 56 | 42 to 70 | 20 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Taj Hotton | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FF | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Kye Annand | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Maurice Rioli | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Liam Fawcett | INT | 39 | 26 to 53 | 6 to 72 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 112 | 95 to 128 | 71 to 153 | 95% | 90% | 80% | 67% | 55% | inside our 50% range: 116 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 137 | 90% | 79% | 65% | 48% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 96 | 80 to 112 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 46% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 94 | 79 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 42% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 49% | 31% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 153 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HFFL | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 69% | 50% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 66% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 55 | 41 to 70 | 20 to 90 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 55 | 40 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 101 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 54 | 40 to 68 | 20 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Aidan Corr | INT | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Taylor Goad | INT | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |