AFL · ROUND 15 · MCG
Richmond v North Melbourne
Sun 21 Jun 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 24
NM to win, 82% chance
RIC 18%82% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 0.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mykelti Lefau | FF | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 58% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 29% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 36% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 34% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 29% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 21% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 31% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kye Annand | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dion Prestia | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Taj Hotton | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Larkey | FF | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 2.1 | 1.2 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 74% | 52% | 30% | 14% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 54% | 27% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 34% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 28% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 40% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 42% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 46% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 41% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 27% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Taylor Goad | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 13% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aidan Corr | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |