AFL · ROUND 15 · MCG
Richmond v North Melbourne
Sun 21 Jun 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 24
NM to win, 82% chance
RIC 18%82% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 0.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 6.7 | 4.6 to 8.8 | 2.1 to 11.3 | 83% | 72% | 57% | 44% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 83% | 70% | 56% | 43% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 68% | 50% | 36% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 51% | 36% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 59% | 42% | 30% | 17% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 59% | 42% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | HFFL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 54% | 39% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 60% | 44% | 31% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 46% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 50% | 31% | 17% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dion Prestia | RR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 40% | 23% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 40% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Taj Hotton | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 20% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kye Annand | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | INT | 2.0 | 0.8 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Parker | BPR | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.7 to 10.7 | 78% | 65% | 51% | 36% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 76% | 61% | 48% | 33% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 68% | 51% | 37% | 25% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 68% | 51% | 37% | 24% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 62% | 45% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 62% | 46% | 33% | 22% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 56% | 40% | 27% | 17% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 57% | 41% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HFFL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 54% | 38% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 47% | 28% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Aidan Corr | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 49% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 49% | 36% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 52% | 37% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 42% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 40% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Taylor Goad | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 18% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |