AFL · ROUND 15 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
Sun 21 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
STK by 3
STK to win, 55% chance
STK 55%45% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 22
MISS Actual margin 22 · 25.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 30.1 | 25.8 to 34.4 | 19.1 to 41.1 | 98% | 91% | 79% | 52% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 44.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | HBFL | 28.3 | 24.1 to 32.4 | 17.6 to 39.0 | 96% | 89% | 71% | 38% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 24.1 | 20.2 to 28.0 | 14.1 to 34.1 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Jack Macrae | C | 22.5 | 18.7 to 26.3 | 12.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 22.0 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Bradley Hill | WR | 21.6 | 17.9 to 25.4 | 12.1 to 31.2 | 89% | 64% | 29% | 8% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 37.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | CHB | 21.5 | 17.8 to 25.3 | 12.0 to 31.1 | 89% | 63% | 28% | 7% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.9 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 20.8 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPL | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.5 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 15.7 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 13.6 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 13.5 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 27.3 | 23.2 to 31.5 | 16.8 to 37.9 | 96% | 87% | 65% | 32% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 27.0 | 22.9 to 31.1 | 16.5 to 37.5 | 96% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 26.1 | 22.1 to 30.1 | 15.8 to 36.4 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 23% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 24.4 | 20.5 to 28.4 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | RR | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.2 | 14.3 to 34.3 | 97% | 84% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 24.1 | 20.3 to 28.0 | 14.2 to 34.1 | 97% | 83% | 52% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 19.2 | 15.6 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 81% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 75% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | WR | 17.8 | 14.4 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.6 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 15.8 | 12.6 to 19.1 | 7.5 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPL | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFL | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 13.4 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.7 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 10.4 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.3 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Rory Lobb | INT | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 9.4 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |