AFL · ROUND 15 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
Sun 21 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
STK by 3
STK to win, 55% chance
STK 55%45% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 22
MISS Actual margin 22 · 25.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 112 | 95 to 128 | 71 to 152 | 95% | 90% | 80% | 66% | 54% | inside our 90% range: 136 |
| Jack Sinclair | HBFL | 103 | 87 to 120 | 63 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 69% | 58% | 40% | outside our 90% range: 2 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 88 | 73 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 66% | 48% | 31% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 134 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Bradley Hill | WR | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Marcus Windhager | CHB | 82 | 66 to 97 | 43 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Jack Macrae | C | 81 | 66 to 97 | 43 to 120 | 71% | 55% | 38% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPL | 76 | 61 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 108 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 56 | 41 to 70 | 20 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 42 | 28 to 55 | 8 to 75 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Richards | R | 105 | 88 to 121 | 64 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 71% | 58% | 42% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 104 | 87 to 120 | 63 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 69% | 58% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 127 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 88% | 78% | 64% | 51% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Tim English | RK | 94 | 78 to 110 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Tom Liberatore | RR | 92 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 131 | 85% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 78% | 59% | 39% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 32% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 25% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Lachlan Bramble | WR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Nick Coffield | BPL | 64 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFL | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Rory Lobb | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |