AFL · ROUND 15 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
Sun 21 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
STK by 3
STK to win, 55% chance
STK 55%45% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 22
MISS Actual margin 22 · 25.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 2.2 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 77% | 54% | 31% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 69% | 38% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 60% | 38% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 50% | 24% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 28% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 22% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 49% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 37% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bradley Hill | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Macrae | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.5 | 82% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 29% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 55% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 57% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 44% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 39% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rory Lobb | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |