AFL · ROUND 15 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
Sun 21 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
STK by 3
STK to win, 55% chance
STK 55%45% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 22
MISS Actual margin 22 · 25.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 5.3 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 79% | 66% | 54% | 40% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Macrae | C | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 70% | 53% | 38% | 25% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 61% | 44% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | CHB | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 55% | 35% | 20% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.2 | 56% | 36% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 53% | 33% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 36% | 20% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 37% | 22% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bradley Hill | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 22% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 72% | 55% | 40% | 27% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | RR | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 72% | 54% | 39% | 27% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 67% | 50% | 34% | 24% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 56% | 37% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 57% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.7 | 50% | 28% | 16% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 27% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rory Lobb | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 24% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 21% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 19% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |