AFL · ROUND 16 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans
Thu 25 Jun 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 3
SYD to win, 55% chance
BRI 45%55% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 43
MISS Actual margin 43 · 46.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 29.7 | 25.4 to 33.9 | 18.8 to 40.6 | 97% | 91% | 77% | 48% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 26.6 | 22.6 to 30.7 | 16.2 to 37.0 | 95% | 86% | 62% | 26% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | INT | 23.9 | 20.0 to 27.7 | 13.9 to 33.8 | 97% | 81% | 50% | 17% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | HFFR | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 10.0 to 28.0 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 18.5 | 15.0 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Ryan Lester | HBFL | 15.7 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 13.9 | 10.8 to 17.0 | 6.0 to 21.8 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 13.4 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 12.4 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Conor McKenna | FPL | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 11.1 | 8.2 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPR | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 13% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 10.4 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.4 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 9.4 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.6 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 26.6 | 22.5 to 30.6 | 16.2 to 37.0 | 95% | 85% | 61% | 26% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 25.2 | 21.3 to 29.2 | 15.1 to 35.4 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 25.0 | 21.1 to 29.0 | 14.9 to 35.2 | 98% | 87% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.7 | 93% | 72% | 39% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 72% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Riley Bice | WL | 20.5 | 16.9 to 24.2 | 11.2 to 29.9 | 86% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 20.3 | 16.6 to 23.9 | 11.0 to 29.5 | 84% | 54% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 19.5 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.4 to 28.6 | 82% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 18.2 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.0 | 72% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.9 to 26.4 | 70% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 16.6 | 13.3 to 19.9 | 8.1 to 25.1 | 64% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFL | 14.1 | 10.9 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFR | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | FPL | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Peter Ladhams | INT | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.5 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 9.5 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.7 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPR | 8.5 | 6.0 to 11.1 | 2.0 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 8.5 | 6.0 to 11.1 | 2.0 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |