AFL · ROUND 16 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans
Thu 25 Jun 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 3
SYD to win, 55% chance
BRI 45%55% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 43
MISS Actual margin 43 · 46.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 88% | 78% | 64% | 51% | 34% | inside our 90% range: 134 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 99 | 83 to 115 | 59 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 93 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 38% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Darcy Wilmot | INT | 92 | 76 to 107 | 53 to 131 | 85% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 130 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | HFFR | 72 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Ryan Lester | HBFL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 61 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 20 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Conor McKenna | FPL | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 50 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 53% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 98 | 82 to 114 | 59 to 138 | 88% | 76% | 62% | 48% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 126 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 46% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Chad Warner | R | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 80% | 66% | 44% | 28% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 128 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Riley Bice | WL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 39% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Peter Ladhams | INT | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFR | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Caiden Cleary | FPL | 57 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFL | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 21 |
| Joel Amartey | FPR | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 46 | 32 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| William Edwards | FB | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 35 | 22 to 48 | 2 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 52 |